# "Signs" Are Not "The Sign"

*Matthew 24:6–8 / Luke 21:8*

**Strength:** Very Strong | **Tone:** Excellent | **Topic:** Eschatology

## Doorstep Question

> "In Matthew 24:6, after listing wars, famines, and earthquakes, Jesus says "the end is not yet." And in Luke 21:8 He warns against people who say "the time is very near now." If Jesus told us NOT to conclude the end is near from those events — why does the Watchtower teach the exact opposite?"

## JW Claim

Wars, famines, earthquakes, and pestilences since 1914 form a "composite
sign" proving we are living in the last days. These events are increasing
in frequency and severity like birth pangs, confirming Christ's invisible
presence began in 1914.

## Strategy

This argument attacks the empirical pillar of the 1914 doctrine. While 002-1914-dating dismantles the chronological calculation and 019-dual- prophet-test challenges prophetic credibility, this argument shows that the evidence the Watchtower cites — world conditions — actually contradicts their claim. Three lines of attack: (1) exegetical — Jesus said these events are NOT the sign; (2) empirical — famines, wars, and pestilences have dramatically decreased, not increased; (3) historical — every generation since Tertullian (197 AD) has made the same claim and been wrong. Lead with Luke 21:8 at the door — it is unfamiliar to JWs and devastating. Save the historical data for follow-up.

## Key Insight

Jesus was asked for one sign (τὸ σημεῖον, singular) and gave one: the Son of Man appearing in heaven (Matt 24:30). The wars, famines, and earthquakes in vv. 4–8 are what He told His disciples NOT to be alarmed by. The Watchtower takes the very events Jesus said should not lead to eschatological conclusions and makes them the centrepiece of its eschatology.

## JW Responses & Counters

### Response 1

**JW says:** "But things ARE getting worse — just look at the world."

**Counter:** Ecclesiastes 7:10 says "Do not say, 'How is it that former times were better than these?' for it is not in wisdom that you ask about this." We know our own suffering intimately but historical suffering only abstractly. China suffered nearly one famine every year for 2,000 years. Approximately 100 million Chinese starved to death in the 19th century alone. India lost perhaps a third of its population in the 1769–70 famine. Europe saw 400 widespread famines in 600 years, many with recorded cannibalism. Today, less than 1% of humanity is actually starving — very probably the lowest proportion in known history. The world feels worse because modern media makes every disaster instantly visible. But visibility is not frequency.

### Response 2

**JW says:** "It's a composite sign — all these things happening together in one generation is what makes it unique."

**Counter:** The disciples asked for one sign, singular — τὸ σημεῖον (Matt 24:3). Jesus answered with one sign, singular — the Son of Man in heaven (Matt 24:30). The "composite sign" is an interpretive invention to rescue the theory, and it fails on its own terms: every generation in history has experienced wars, famines, earthquakes, pestilences, false prophets, and lawlessness simultaneously. There has never been a generation without all of them. If every generation qualifies, the "sign" distinguishes nothing.

### Response 3

**JW says:** "Jesus said "birth pangs" — they increase in frequency and intensity."

**Counter:** Jesus said "all these are but the beginning of the birth pains" (Matt 24:8). The metaphor describes the nature of these events — painful, purposeful, leading to something — not a pattern of escalating frequency. And even if escalation were the claim, the data contradicts it. Your own organisation admitted in 1983 that the greatest recorded famine in history was the Chinese famine of 1876–79 — before 1914. India had no major famine for 35 years after 1908. Europe's last great famine was Ireland in 1846. The trajectory is downward, not upward.

### Response 4

**JW says:** "The Watchtower has documented the increase in these disasters."

**Counter:** Actually, the Watchtower has been forced to revise its own claims. For decades they taught the worst famines followed World War I. In 1983 they admitted the greatest recorded famine preceded 1914. They cited UN hunger figures ranging from "one in eight" to "85 percent" depending on which publication suited the argument — because they conflate famine (acute starvation, what Jesus predicted with the Greek word λιμός) with chronic malnutrition (which has always existed but wasn't measured until modern nutrition science). Even malnutrition and child mortality have steadily declined throughout the 20th century.

### Response 5

**JW says:** "You're spiritualising away Jesus' clear predictions."

**Counter:** I'm taking Jesus' words at face value. He said "the end is not yet" (Matt 24:6). He said "see that you are not alarmed" (Matt 24:6). He said these are "the beginning" — not the climax (Matt 24:8). And in Luke 21:8 He explicitly warned against people who say "the time is very near now" — that is precisely what the Watchtower teaches. I'm not spiritualising anything. I'm reading what Jesus actually said rather than what the Watchtower says He meant.

## What to Avoid

Do not drown the JW in statistics at the door. Lead with Luke 21:8 and one or two supporting facts (the Watchtower's 1983 admission is the strongest). Save the full historical data for follow-up conversations or homework. Do not mock their sincerity — acknowledge that the desire to see God act is good, but redirect it toward what Jesus actually promised.

## Homework

Read Matthew 24:4–8 and Luke 21:8 carefully. Notice that Jesus says "the end is not yet" and warns against people who proclaim "the time is very near now." Then look up the history of Chinese famines — the University of Nanking documented 1,828 famines in 2,000 years. Ask yourself: if the worst famines in history happened centuries before 1914, and famine has dramatically decreased since then, can world conditions really be the "sign" the Watchtower claims? The book "The Sign of the Last Days — When?" by Jonsson and Herbst is freely available online and documents this evidence exhaustively. Also read "The Gentile Times Reconsidered" by Jonsson, which dismantles the chronological basis for 1914.

## Next Moves

- [Christ's Three-Category Parousia](/arguments/parousia-three-categories.md)
- [1914 Dating Error](/arguments/1914-dating.md)
- ["This Generation" — Matthew 24:34](/arguments/this-generation.md)
- [The Abomination of Desolation — Luke 21:20](/arguments/abomination-desolation.md)

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*Source: Carl Olof Jonsson & Wolfgang Herbst, "The Sign of the Last Days — When?" (1987)*